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BERNOULLI, JAKOB (1654-1705). Ars conjectandi, opus posthumum. Accedit tractatus de seriebus infinitis, et epistola Gallicè scripta de ludo pilae reticularis. Edited by Nicholas Bernoulli. Basel: Thurneisen brothers, 1713. 4° (213 x 168 mm). 2 folding letterpress tables, 1 folding woodcut diagram, woodcut device on title, woodcut ornaments and initials, with blank leaf Qq2. (Blank corner of c1 repaired, small dampstain to gutter margins of second half, slightly affecting text of last 8 leaves). Modern half vellum and marbled boards, EDGES UNCUT. Provenance: 19th-century inkstamp of a German military academy on title (partly illegible); effaced oval inkstamp in title margin.
FIRST EDITION OF THE FIRST MAJOR WORK ON PROBABILITY THEORY. Bernoulli was one of a family of gifted mathematicians who contributed greatly to the development of the calculus beyond the point where it had been left by Newton and Leibnitz. Edited after Bernoulli's death by his nephew, the Ars conjectandi "set forth the fundamental principles of the calculus of probabilities and contained the first suggestion that the theory could extend beyond the boundaries of mathematics to apply to civic, moral and economic affairs" (Norman). The work is divided into four parts, the first three containing mathematical expositions of various aspects of the calculus of probabilities. The fourth and most important part is a philosophical discussion of probability, considered from various angles: "as a measurable degree of certainty, necesssity and chance, moral versus mathematical expectation, a priori and a posteriori probability" (DSB), etc.; it also contains the introduction of "Bernoulli's theorem", or the first law of large numbers. Although unfortunately never completed, the work was a major contribution to the later development of probability theory. Dibner Heralds of Science 110; Grolier/Horblit 12; Norman 216; PMM 179.
FIRST EDITION OF THE FIRST MAJOR WORK ON PROBABILITY THEORY. Bernoulli was one of a family of gifted mathematicians who contributed greatly to the development of the calculus beyond the point where it had been left by Newton and Leibnitz. Edited after Bernoulli's death by his nephew, the Ars conjectandi "set forth the fundamental principles of the calculus of probabilities and contained the first suggestion that the theory could extend beyond the boundaries of mathematics to apply to civic, moral and economic affairs" (Norman). The work is divided into four parts, the first three containing mathematical expositions of various aspects of the calculus of probabilities. The fourth and most important part is a philosophical discussion of probability, considered from various angles: "as a measurable degree of certainty, necesssity and chance, moral versus mathematical expectation, a priori and a posteriori probability" (DSB), etc.; it also contains the introduction of "Bernoulli's theorem", or the first law of large numbers. Although unfortunately never completed, the work was a major contribution to the later development of probability theory. Dibner Heralds of Science 110; Grolier/Horblit 12; Norman 216; PMM 179.