JEFFERSON, Thomas. Autograph letter signed ("Th. J"), a retained copy of a letter to François-Alexandre-Frédéric, Duc de la Rochefoucauld-Liancourt (1747-1827), n.p., 9 May 1800. 1 full page, 4to, with Jefferson's explanatory notes at beginning and end of the document.

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JEFFERSON, Thomas. Autograph letter signed ("Th. J"), a retained copy of a letter to François-Alexandre-Frédéric, Duc de la Rochefoucauld-Liancourt (1747-1827), n.p., 9 May 1800. 1 full page, 4to, with Jefferson's explanatory notes at beginning and end of the document.

JEFFERSON CONFIDENTLY PREDICTS HIS ELECTION AS PRESIDENT, AS ADAMS'S FOREIGN POLICY HAS CAUSED "A REVULSION OF...PUBLIC SENTIMENT" AND A RETURN TO "REPUBLICAN PRINCIPLES"

The busy soon-to-be chief executive--usually a meticulous record-keeper--has forgotten to take a press copy of his letter, so "eight hours afterwards I sit down to repeat it as nearly verbally as I can by memory." It's a remarkable feat of memory, and an equally remarkable letter, ranging over everything from the naval war with France, the XYZ Affair, the bitter factionalism dividing the American people, and the looming Presidential election. "You doubtless know," he tells the Duke, "of the two parties existing here & calling themselves republican & federal. The principles of the former are those of the great body of the people. But the depred[atio]ns on our commerce by the French, & their rejections of our envoys irritated them so much that they threw their whole weight into the scale of the other party. Encouraged by this appearance of popularity a development of the principles [of] that party ensued, which has occasioned a revulsion of the public sentiment. The people are now returning rapidly to their natural preference of republican principles." In support of this Jefferson cites the example of a recent New Hampshire election, where a Federalist governor "was near being ousted." Likewise in Massachusetts, Ellbridge Gerry came "within 2,000 votes of carrying" the state against a Federalist governor. In New York republicans won a huge majority in the legislature and "these," Jefferson points out, "chuse the electors of President. This event, in the understanding of both parties, decides the fate of the election of President to take place in the ensuing autumn." To counteract the loss of New York, "the federal party are proposing to run a Southern candidate (Genl. Pinckney) in conjunction with the present President, in hopes of taking off the vote of S. Carolina. But how they are to manage the operation so as not to endanger by it the present President, I neither know nor can conceive." However it turns out, Jefferson is certain the Congress will be strongly Republican, so that "no administration will venture to pursue measures against the sense of the house supported by the voice of the people..." After asking the Duke to pass his best wishes to Madame de la Rochefoucauld, Jefferson signs off "Th. J." and ends the transcription with: "the above is substantially, & nearly verbally exact, the very wording of every passage being still entirely fresh in my memory." The Federalist's "southern strategy" did indeed backfire, but it nearly kept both Jefferson and Adams from winning. The Electoral College vote resulted in a tie between Jefferson and his supposed running mate, Aaron Burr. Only after 36 ballots in the House of Representatives did Jefferson finally emerge the victor.

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